After the future of self-driving car technology is mature, not only in the transportation field, but also in the fast food, real estate, hotels, aviation and other fields will undergo earth-shaking changes. Let's take a look at the related content with the car electronics editor.
It is foreseeable that autonomous vehicles will be widely used in various fields in the next 20 years. At present, more than 20 heavyweight companies, including Google, Apple, Mercedes-Benz, etc. are actively developing self-driving cars, and Tesla's Model S has even been loaded with autonomous driving hardware and software.
The maturity of autopilot applications will bring much profit to technology companies and auto companies. We don’t know for a while, but we can imagine which areas of autonomous vehicles will bring drastic changes, or autopilots will impact. Which traditional industries.
Insurance industry
Self-driving cars will significantly improve the safety of car transportation, McKinsey expects that self-driving cars will reduce 90% of car accidents in the United States. Although this means that insurance premiums will be reduced, it also means that the demand for such insurance will fall. In response to this situation, many insurance companies have begun to introduce insurance for the use of mileage (UBI), which depends not only on how many miles the vehicle travels, but also on whether the driver's driving habits are safe.
The domestic UBI insurance model has been approved by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2015. At this time, the market is expecting to use the UBI model to resolve the current situation of vehicle insurance industry losses. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the promotion of UBI auto insurance is not optimistic, and the application of vehicle networking technology has not yet been rolled out. According to domestic auto insurance experts, if the UBI auto insurance promotion is successful, the underwriting loss rate is expected to drop to 40%, which will significantly enhance the profitability of auto insurance companies.
2. Auto repair industry
The promotion of autonomous driving will reduce the frequency of accidents, which means that the auto repair shop business will gradually become sluggish, and the value of traditional auto repair technicians will be further reduced with the interconnection and software of automobiles. The advanced features of autonomous vehicles will enable drivers to understand the repair techniques they need and control the time of regular maintenance, thereby reducing potential repair costs. For example, Zubie provides real-time diagnostic services for connected car owners, so that owners can know where their car is going wrong before sending the car for inspection.
3. Professional drivers and trucking
The emergence of self-driving cars will reduce the demand for truck drivers, taxi drivers and other professional drivers. Instead, using telematics, which uses telecommunications to facilitate communication and collect vehicle data, taxi and truck companies will be better able to manage self-driving cars, improve service quality and optimize service routes.
Of course, the work of managing these systems still needs people to do it. At present, we can see that Australia has used auto-driving trucks to transport iron ore. Canadian energy company Suncor Energy is working to automate all its trucks. The company's CFO estimates that it will reduce the number of 800 manual drivers. Invest.
In a more complex and complex application scenario, the self-driving transport vehicle launched by Udelv, a US startup, has already started testing on the road. This orange van has L4-class driving capability, with six Velodyne 16-line lidars and five camera sensors, each wrapped around the front body, to handle most weather conditions and road conditions, with an all-electric power system for power. At full power, the truck can travel 96 kilometers at a speed of 40 kilometers per hour and can load up to 700 pounds of cargo.
4. Hotel
The future of the hotel industry will be very different from the present. As more and more young people choose short-term rental platforms such as AirBnB, many large-scale hotel chains have tried their best to cater to the preferences of young travelers. The popularity of self-driving cars will further differentiate the hotel's user base: those self-driving tourists who originally planned to stay overnight at the roadside motel. Sven Schuwirth, Audi's vice president of brand strategy and digital business, predicts that 20 years later, many motel consumers will choose to make a night in their self-driving cars.
5. Aviation
Intercontinental car travel may not be realized for the time being, but domestic and short-haul flights may be greatly threatened by autonomous vehicles. Once the self-driving car is popular, the travel convenience is greatly improved. Many people will not choose tools such as cars and trains on short trips, just as Audi Vice President Schuwirth explained: "Your car will wake you up at 4 am, automatically. Take you from Munich to Berlin. You can sleep in the car, you can prepare for the meeting, you can call your family and friends, no matter how many hours it takes."
Since this situation has a great impact on the current public transportation system, even the CRRC Group, which produces high-speed trains, has already been deployed in the field of automatic driving. On July 18 last year, CRRC Electric independently developed the world's first 12 The meter-driven passenger bus was opened in Zhuzhou, Hunan, and the traction, steering, lane change and other actions were automatically completed, and the top speed reached 40 km/h.
6. Auto parts
The future will reduce not only accidents, but also wear parts. With the birth of intelligent driving software such as auxiliary brakes, the wear parts on the car will be further reduced, leaving only the most necessary ones. And with the popularization of autonomous driving scenes, sharing scenes such as self-driving cars will significantly improve the effective utilization rate of vehicles and reduce vehicle losses.
At the same time, according to PwC, by 2030, electronic equipment will account for 50% of the cost of automobile production, which is far higher than 1/3. Therefore, the number of repairs and the amount of maintenance of automobile parts and mechanical parts will both drop. And the accessories manufacturers will have a lot of business pressure, and the above maintenance business will also be affected.
7. Net car company
The future competition between autopilots and Uber and other car companies is still uncertain. Uber is already developing autopilot technology and considering adding this service to the platform; the other is the same as the network car company. Lyft has partnered with GM to develop its own self-driving car. Although Uber has proved that the traditional taxi company is not defeated, it is still a mystery whether it can surpass the old car manufacturers such as BMW in the manufacture of automobiles. We can't even guarantee that Uber will go beyond Google, which started developing autonomous cars.
If the era of driverlessness comes, Uber will certainly save the money paid to the driver, but at the same time it will also bear the cost of car manufacturing – and this cost is now paid by third-party contractors. Having said that, we believe that Uber will still have a greater structural advantage than its competitors, as the latter has lost in navigation and driving data. In addition, considering the car's reliance on mechanical parts, the rapid commercialization of driverless car hardware is also entirely possible.
The domestic market's network car giant Didi is also actively developing the development of autonomous driving technology. On January 26, 2017, following the Drip Institute and Didi American Research Institute, Didi Travel announced the establishment of AI Labs to increase labor. Intelligent forward-looking basic research attracts top scientific research talents and accelerates the development of cutting-edge technology for global intelligent transportation.
8. Public transportation
We all have this experience: Waiting for the bus to wait until you get to the heart, you have to take a long road to get to the destination. If there is a self-driving car that can appear immediately at your doorstep and take you to the designated location, why not? For the consumer, because the driver is not needed, the cost of the on-demand car will be more traditional than Taxi is also cheap. If you are carpooling with others, it is cheaper to have no friends.
Zipcar co-founder Robin Chase said that because of the cost of the driver, the price of the on-demand car will be greatly reduced, and it is just around the corner to replace public transportation, not to mention the wide-ranging public transportation. Robin said: "Bus, short-distance traffic, mini-trucks, school buses will all exit the stage of history."
At present, the more common custom bus and customized bus in the future will also produce more convenient service types with the advancement of technology. First, the fleet capacity is no longer limited by the number of passengers and working hours, so the vehicle utilization efficiency will be Higher; secondly, intelligent passenger allocation and operational line planning will significantly reduce operating costs, allowing both passengers and operating companies to obtain benefits and benefits.
9. Parking garage and parking lot
Given that driverless cars often shuttle back and forth where they are needed, the demand for long-term parking will inevitably fall sharply.
From the McKinsey report, we can see that in the United States alone, autonomous vehicles can save 61 billion square feet of parking space. In several major cities in the United States, parking space accounts for one-third of the land area. In the future, once the number of driverless cars is widespread, the owners of these garages can transform these garages into more valuable formats and sell them to others.
10. Energy and oil
Last year, researchers at the University of Michigan came to the conclusion that for the convenience of travel, we will use more autonomous vehicles, so autonomous vehicles will bring more energy consumption. However, cars that have the characteristics of electric cars and self-driving cars, such as Tesla's Model S, tell us that human demand for gasoline may be reduced.
The infrastructure that serves electric self-driving cars is still in its infancy (such as the charging station network). This intermediate phase is also an opportunity for oil companies to consider how they should adapt to the new energy ecology. system.
11. Commercial real estate
Affected not only in the parking garage, but also in the “effects†of self-driving cars, the entire real estate industry will be thinking about how to reshape the space. Bloomberg's Noah Smith said that from the middle of the city to the suburban wilderness, fast and convenient commuting will change the value of residential properties.
In commercial real estate, the space required by the manual driver will be transferred to other uses. For example, PARTNER's engineering CEO Joe Derhake said that there is a gas station on the busy corner to attract people's attention. It is not necessary to have an industrial area near the port to facilitate truck drivers in the future.
12. Automobile manufacturing
Having said that, we should not forget that the auto industry itself, the self-driving cars developed by automakers such as BMW and Audi, will reduce the demand for consumers to purchase their own cars. The car itself is an asset that is constantly depreciating, not to mention that most people use cars only 4% a day.
As companies such as Mercedes-Benz and Uber continue to grow their fleet of self-driving cars, it will be easier for consumers to meet their own transportation needs, so there is no need to spend a lot of money to buy a car.
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