Some industry experts in the interview believe that it is unlikely that greater relaxation will be implemented. The reason is that this will seriously affect the transformation of the mode of economic development.
A major provincial electric power official recently decided to take two.
In the past when reporters learned about power-related figures, he introduced them politely. However, when he was consulted on July 9th, he said that he was very embarrassed. “The numbers are not there. There is nothing to say.â€
The reporter learned that the person’s emotional change was due to the negative growth in electricity consumption in the area in June. This situation still exists in the three provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions throughout the country. According to the local energy control department's power report, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in June was about 4%, which is still in the low-speed range, and even lower than the figure of about 5% of the nation's electricity consumption in May.
A middle-level official of CEC told the reporter that the last-mentioned total consumption of electricity in the above four provinces is not a negative number, and it will take a few days (the final data will come out). However, the current demand for electricity in the country is indeed low, which is certain.
National energy and macro-ministerial authorities have held analysis conferences in the near future. The preliminary conclusion is that the downward pressure on the economy has increased and the effective market demand is insufficient.
However, some experts believe that the country is unlikely to change its control policy. Tang Jianwei, an analyst at Bank of Communications, told the reporter that from the current situation, the economic growth rate in the second quarter may fall to the annual target of 7.5%, while the economy in the first half of the year is likely to fall below 8%, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 8%. Around, you can accomplish your goals.
Tang believes that "the key now is to make structural reforms because the banks still have a lot of money and they can't lend out loans."
From July 6th to 8th, when Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council came to Jiangsu Province for research, he mentioned that at present, China's economic operation is generally stable, but the downward pressure remains high. It is necessary to further increase pre-adjustment and fine-tuning efforts and adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy. In particular, we must focus on improving structural tax cuts and continue to implement a prudent monetary policy.
In June, reporters learned that electricity demand was sluggish. The three cities with negative growth in electricity use in May, namely Hubei, Jiangxi, and Shanghai, had turned positive in June. However, this does not mean that the current electricity situation in the country is improving.
According to the current local energy control department's electric bulletin, the total electricity consumption in Zhejiang, Jilin, Henan, and Yunnan in June was negative. This has caused power users in some places to be confused, but whether the negative growth of electricity is caused by the economic failure or the cool weather this year is still being analyzed.
According to the June Express, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is about 4%, which is lower than the growth rate of about 5% of the entire society that was formally announced in May.
However, when the reporter asked for confirmation, the above-mentioned middle-level officials of the CEC stated that the negative growth of electricity in 4% and elsewhere was yet to be finalized.
However, the economic downturn is positive. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, bluntly stated that if the growth rate of electricity consumption in the above-mentioned provinces does slow down, “it shows that their GDP is relatively weak, and there is also a factor that the GDP base last year was relatively large and the electricity consumption base was large. It is also relatively large, so this year's growth in electricity consumption will not go up."
In the face of change, the competent authorities are also thinking about countermeasures.
The National Energy Administration recently held a number of provincial and municipal energy situation analysis meetings. According to the reporter's analysis of the local energy bureau website briefing news analysis, due to the global economy is not optimistic about factors such as the overall impact, the overall economic situation in the country down, the general economic growth in various regions has slowed down, the pressure of steady growth has further increased.
In the next stage, as the effects of various measures for “stabilizing growth†of the country gradually emerge, and the peak of energy use during the summer peak season, energy demand may “rise steadily†along with changes in the economic situation, but it is uncertain. There are also many factors that need to be strengthened.
Emphasis on transformation and upgrading According to the reporter's understanding, in the recent intensive economic situation analysis meetings organized by the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission's Operation Bureau and the General Affairs Department, several places have suggested that the country adopt more relaxed monetary and fiscal policies.
The person in charge of the General Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will make more accurate judgments on the current situation on the basis of in-depth research and provide decision-making basis for the next macroeconomic regulation.
However, some industry experts in the interview believe that it is unlikely that greater relaxation will be implemented. The reason is that this will seriously affect the transformation of the mode of economic development.
The reporter was informed that at present, the economic growth of the western provinces and cities is not slow in all provinces. For example, the Sichuan Economic Information Center predicts that the economic growth in the first half of the year will be over 13%. In some of these areas, the economic growth rate is even contradictory to the country’s total energy control. For example, according to Sichuan's current economic growth rate, if it is necessary to implement the 5-year double plan proposed by many provinces in the western region, it will be difficult to complete the energy saving target.
According to information from party congresses around the world, except for a few areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Henan that do not explicitly mention that the five-year GDP (region's gross domestic product) has doubled, the remaining 20 provinces and cities have clearly emphasized that the economy has doubled in five years. The proposed goal also proposes “12% of the five-year average annual target, plus about 3% price increaseâ€, implying that the actual economic growth rate is above 15% annually.
To this end, Yang Fuqiang, an adviser to the Natural Resources Defense Council of the United States, believes that the planned economic growth in various regions is too high, “causing the total energy control to be decomposed, or local economic growth to need to be adjusted upwards and downwards nowâ€.
The national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by 16%, the corresponding GDP growth rate will be around 8%, and the total national energy consumption will be 4 billion tons of standard coal. Even if renewable energy is not taken into account, the final total amount will also be considered. With regard to 4.3 billion tons of standard coal, the total amount of energy corresponding to planned economic growth has reached 5 billion tons of standard coal.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center at Xiamen University, also believes that local current practices are contradictory. As the economic growth rate declines and the demand for electricity and energy decreases, many places have made proposals to ensure the stable and rapid growth of the energy industry and accelerate the promotion of the market. However, if the growth rate is pushed up, energy-saving assessment indicators will not be completed.
"As the pressure of economic downturn increases and the effective demand of the energy market is insufficient, the energy industry should put it aside and focus on transformation and upgrading," said Lin.
The economic growth rate has gradually entered the 8 era. The entire Chinese economy has entered the 8% rapid growth phase and seems to be becoming a trend.
Not long ago, according to forecasts from the Bank of Communications and Renmin University, the economic growth rate in the second quarter will be less than 8%. The Bank of Communications even anticipates that the economic growth rate in the second quarter may be about 7.5% of the annual target. This will cause the economic growth rate in the first half of the year to fall below 8%. Even if it improves in the second half of the year, it will only be around 8% for the whole year.
According to the reporter’s review, the average economic growth rate in China in the past 30 years was about 9.8%, and the economy was below 8% in only a few years such as 1989 and 1998.
At present, the economic growth rate has declined for eight consecutive quarters. Renmin University of China, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions have all determined that, given the declining high-speed growth that China's resources and environment can support, the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy will enter medium or high speeds in the future. Growth stage.
In view of this downward trend, Shen Lisheng, an expert in the Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks it is very good. Because the current economic growth rate is about 8% and the price is about 3%, it is a perfect combination. According to this view, the Chinese economy can still double in about 7 years, so that it can also quadruple in 15 years.
With respect, the Chinese economy cannot be too fast because the rapid economic growth will inevitably drive up prices. At present, even if the economic growth rate is 8%, and the price is about 3%, this is not the same as the case that the US economy has only grown below 3%, and the price is lower than 2%.
"The key is that high growth must be achieved with low inflation. This is a high-quality scientific growth," Shen said.
In the long run, comprehensive national conditions are also changing. Previously, the number of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated that due to the end of the demographic dividend, the potential annual average economic growth rate of China from 2021 to 2025 will therefore be about 2.2 percentage points lower than in the past. In the next 40 years, that is, between 2011 and 2050, the aging population will reduce the potential annual average economic growth rate in China by about 1.7 percentage points.
A major provincial electric power official recently decided to take two.
In the past when reporters learned about power-related figures, he introduced them politely. However, when he was consulted on July 9th, he said that he was very embarrassed. “The numbers are not there. There is nothing to say.â€
The reporter learned that the person’s emotional change was due to the negative growth in electricity consumption in the area in June. This situation still exists in the three provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions throughout the country. According to the local energy control department's power report, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in June was about 4%, which is still in the low-speed range, and even lower than the figure of about 5% of the nation's electricity consumption in May.
A middle-level official of CEC told the reporter that the last-mentioned total consumption of electricity in the above four provinces is not a negative number, and it will take a few days (the final data will come out). However, the current demand for electricity in the country is indeed low, which is certain.
National energy and macro-ministerial authorities have held analysis conferences in the near future. The preliminary conclusion is that the downward pressure on the economy has increased and the effective market demand is insufficient.
However, some experts believe that the country is unlikely to change its control policy. Tang Jianwei, an analyst at Bank of Communications, told the reporter that from the current situation, the economic growth rate in the second quarter may fall to the annual target of 7.5%, while the economy in the first half of the year is likely to fall below 8%, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 8%. Around, you can accomplish your goals.
Tang believes that "the key now is to make structural reforms because the banks still have a lot of money and they can't lend out loans."
From July 6th to 8th, when Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council came to Jiangsu Province for research, he mentioned that at present, China's economic operation is generally stable, but the downward pressure remains high. It is necessary to further increase pre-adjustment and fine-tuning efforts and adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy. In particular, we must focus on improving structural tax cuts and continue to implement a prudent monetary policy.
In June, reporters learned that electricity demand was sluggish. The three cities with negative growth in electricity use in May, namely Hubei, Jiangxi, and Shanghai, had turned positive in June. However, this does not mean that the current electricity situation in the country is improving.
According to the current local energy control department's electric bulletin, the total electricity consumption in Zhejiang, Jilin, Henan, and Yunnan in June was negative. This has caused power users in some places to be confused, but whether the negative growth of electricity is caused by the economic failure or the cool weather this year is still being analyzed.
According to the June Express, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is about 4%, which is lower than the growth rate of about 5% of the entire society that was formally announced in May.
However, when the reporter asked for confirmation, the above-mentioned middle-level officials of the CEC stated that the negative growth of electricity in 4% and elsewhere was yet to be finalized.
However, the economic downturn is positive. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, bluntly stated that if the growth rate of electricity consumption in the above-mentioned provinces does slow down, “it shows that their GDP is relatively weak, and there is also a factor that the GDP base last year was relatively large and the electricity consumption base was large. It is also relatively large, so this year's growth in electricity consumption will not go up."
In the face of change, the competent authorities are also thinking about countermeasures.
The National Energy Administration recently held a number of provincial and municipal energy situation analysis meetings. According to the reporter's analysis of the local energy bureau website briefing news analysis, due to the global economy is not optimistic about factors such as the overall impact, the overall economic situation in the country down, the general economic growth in various regions has slowed down, the pressure of steady growth has further increased.
In the next stage, as the effects of various measures for “stabilizing growth†of the country gradually emerge, and the peak of energy use during the summer peak season, energy demand may “rise steadily†along with changes in the economic situation, but it is uncertain. There are also many factors that need to be strengthened.
Emphasis on transformation and upgrading According to the reporter's understanding, in the recent intensive economic situation analysis meetings organized by the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission's Operation Bureau and the General Affairs Department, several places have suggested that the country adopt more relaxed monetary and fiscal policies.
The person in charge of the General Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will make more accurate judgments on the current situation on the basis of in-depth research and provide decision-making basis for the next macroeconomic regulation.
However, some industry experts in the interview believe that it is unlikely that greater relaxation will be implemented. The reason is that this will seriously affect the transformation of the mode of economic development.
The reporter was informed that at present, the economic growth of the western provinces and cities is not slow in all provinces. For example, the Sichuan Economic Information Center predicts that the economic growth in the first half of the year will be over 13%. In some of these areas, the economic growth rate is even contradictory to the country’s total energy control. For example, according to Sichuan's current economic growth rate, if it is necessary to implement the 5-year double plan proposed by many provinces in the western region, it will be difficult to complete the energy saving target.
According to information from party congresses around the world, except for a few areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Henan that do not explicitly mention that the five-year GDP (region's gross domestic product) has doubled, the remaining 20 provinces and cities have clearly emphasized that the economy has doubled in five years. The proposed goal also proposes “12% of the five-year average annual target, plus about 3% price increaseâ€, implying that the actual economic growth rate is above 15% annually.
To this end, Yang Fuqiang, an adviser to the Natural Resources Defense Council of the United States, believes that the planned economic growth in various regions is too high, “causing the total energy control to be decomposed, or local economic growth to need to be adjusted upwards and downwards nowâ€.
The national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by 16%, the corresponding GDP growth rate will be around 8%, and the total national energy consumption will be 4 billion tons of standard coal. Even if renewable energy is not taken into account, the final total amount will also be considered. With regard to 4.3 billion tons of standard coal, the total amount of energy corresponding to planned economic growth has reached 5 billion tons of standard coal.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center at Xiamen University, also believes that local current practices are contradictory. As the economic growth rate declines and the demand for electricity and energy decreases, many places have made proposals to ensure the stable and rapid growth of the energy industry and accelerate the promotion of the market. However, if the growth rate is pushed up, energy-saving assessment indicators will not be completed.
"As the pressure of economic downturn increases and the effective demand of the energy market is insufficient, the energy industry should put it aside and focus on transformation and upgrading," said Lin.
The economic growth rate has gradually entered the 8 era. The entire Chinese economy has entered the 8% rapid growth phase and seems to be becoming a trend.
Not long ago, according to forecasts from the Bank of Communications and Renmin University, the economic growth rate in the second quarter will be less than 8%. The Bank of Communications even anticipates that the economic growth rate in the second quarter may be about 7.5% of the annual target. This will cause the economic growth rate in the first half of the year to fall below 8%. Even if it improves in the second half of the year, it will only be around 8% for the whole year.
According to the reporter’s review, the average economic growth rate in China in the past 30 years was about 9.8%, and the economy was below 8% in only a few years such as 1989 and 1998.
At present, the economic growth rate has declined for eight consecutive quarters. Renmin University of China, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions have all determined that, given the declining high-speed growth that China's resources and environment can support, the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy will enter medium or high speeds in the future. Growth stage.
In view of this downward trend, Shen Lisheng, an expert in the Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks it is very good. Because the current economic growth rate is about 8% and the price is about 3%, it is a perfect combination. According to this view, the Chinese economy can still double in about 7 years, so that it can also quadruple in 15 years.
With respect, the Chinese economy cannot be too fast because the rapid economic growth will inevitably drive up prices. At present, even if the economic growth rate is 8%, and the price is about 3%, this is not the same as the case that the US economy has only grown below 3%, and the price is lower than 2%.
"The key is that high growth must be achieved with low inflation. This is a high-quality scientific growth," Shen said.
In the long run, comprehensive national conditions are also changing. Previously, the number of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated that due to the end of the demographic dividend, the potential annual average economic growth rate of China from 2021 to 2025 will therefore be about 2.2 percentage points lower than in the past. In the next 40 years, that is, between 2011 and 2050, the aging population will reduce the potential annual average economic growth rate in China by about 1.7 percentage points.
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