The top five Chinese power batteries will occupy 70-80% of the market. Two to three years later, the dominance of the Ningde era will surely change.
The rapid entry into the capital market in the Ningde era undoubtedly brought great confidence to potential battery manufacturing companies. On the 4th day after the update of the Ningde Times prospectus on April 4th, after going through trials on the IPO, the Ningde era passed smoothly.
The IPO, Ningde era plan to publicly issue A shares on the GEM to no more than 217 million shares, accounting for no less than 10% of the total number of shares after the issuance, and plans to raise funds of 13.12 billion yuan. The Ningde Times sponsor CSC Securities issued a trial on April 3rd.
“The profitability of capital is very strong. In the past few years, growth and profitability have been very good from the perspective of financial reports published in the Ningde era. At the same time, the power battery is the top priority of electric vehicles, which is also capital. One of the main reasons to be optimistic.†A power battery industry investor said in an interview with Think Tank.
To a certain extent, the “one-size-up†Ningde era has accelerated government retreats and industry reshuffle after regulatory tightening. The power battery structure will also become clearer. Some core technologies will be lacking, management capabilities will be low, and there will be no capital assistance. Pushed enterprises will face the outcome of the elimination and acquisition.
Power Battery "One Largest"
Ningde Times, established in 2011, is the leading supplier of power battery systems for domestic sales and focuses on R&D, production and sales of new energy vehicle power battery systems and energy storage systems. Power battery system sales are the main source of income for the Ningde era. Due to its leading position in the industry and the valuation of more than one hundred billion yuan, the Ningde era was known as the "super unicorn."
In 2017, Ningde Power Battery System sales reached 11.84 GWh, accounting for nearly 30% of domestic sales, ranking first in global power battery sales.
According to its prospectus, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in Ningde era was 931 million, 3.022 billion, and 3.972 billion respectively in 2015-2017, and the year-on-year growth in 2016 and 2017 was 224.60% and 31.44% respectively. The sales revenue of power battery systems was 4.98 billion yuan, 13.98 billion yuan and 16.66 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 87.98%, 95.55%, and 87.01% of the main business revenue, respectively.
From 2015 to 2017, with the cooperation of the entire industry chain, the cost of the Ningde era has been further controlled. In the past three years, the sales of power battery systems were 2.28 yuan/Wh, 2.06 yuan/Wh, and 1.41 yuan/Wh. The unit cost of the power battery system in the Ningde era was 1.33 yuan/Wh, 1.13 yuan/Wh, and 0.91 yuan/Wh, respectively.
In the aspect of partners, Ningde Times has cooperated with SAIC, Beijing Automotive, Geely Group, Fuqi Group, China Motor Group, Dongfeng Group and Changan Group, Yutong Group and other domestic auto companies, as well as international brands such as BMW and Volkswagen. At the same time, it collaborated with new startups such as Weilai Motor to lay out the smart car industry.
According to informed sources, the power battery companies that previously bid for the Volkswagen MEB electric vehicle project with the Ningde era included LG, Panasonic, and Samsung, and the final orders were obtained from the Ningde era. In the Ningde era, it will also become the power battery company that is currently the only priority purchase of the Volkswagen Group in China and applied to the MEB platform.
Create a "Ningde era"
According to statistics, in 2018, the sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide will be about 1 million, which will correspond to about 45GWh of power battery demand. In 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide will exceed 2 million, corresponding to a power battery demand of about 110GWh. Now Ningde's entry into the global power battery market will bring about incremental space, and the market space faced by industry chain companies will almost double.
At the same time, China's power battery reshuffle began in 2017. Nearly 200 companies entered the announcement in 2016. There will be less than 100 companies in 2017. Some experts believe that the companies entering the announcement in 2018 will be reduced to half of 2017. It may be that by 2020, only 20 to 30 Chinese power batteries will enter the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Then, who will be the next Ningde era? “The top five Chinese power batteries will occupy 70-80% of the market. After two to three years, the situation in the Ningde era will definitely be changed. Other companies may even be unaware of it. The companies that have a smart manufacturing capability can form a pattern that runs parallel to CATL, said Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Automotive Venture Capital Fund of the National Science and Technology Achievements Conversion Fund.
At present, among the global power battery sales rankings, the power battery manufacturers that occupy a certain market share include Ningde, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma, LG Chemical, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Samsung SDI, and BAK.
“BYD has a huge battery R&D team, battery R&D and quality control are all very good, battery consistency and safety is very good. But because BYD's battery is only internal supply, it has lost to the rapidly rising Ningde in scale of expansion. In the era, I think that BYD's battery business should be split up and used for the outside world as soon as possible.†On April 8, Wang Binggang, the former director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and an industry battery expert, said in an interview with Think Tank.
In this regard, BYD relevant sources told think tank Jun, "Now the battery business will not be demolished separately, but in the future will be sold in cooperation with more car companies, but the export must reach 70% or more, in order to demolish the battery business, a separate listing ."
And Fang Jianhua told Zhikujun that some enterprises with a very high starting point will focus on smart manufacturing. According to digitally-designed factories, these companies also have great opportunities.
"Including CATL, there is currently no complete intelligent manufacturing, and it has not yet been fully automated. The future power battery factory must be a digital, intelligent manufacturing fully automated factory. This can truly narrow the gap between Japan and South Korea on the technical route. , Everyone is consistent, the key is the gap between the level of automation and the level of intelligent manufacturing management to be gradually narrowed.†Fang Jianhua stressed.
In fact, compared with Japanese and Korean companies, China has policies and market advantages. The management and manufacturing level of China's power battery companies are narrowing the gap between Japan and South Korea. The progress of the power battery comes from the application, the choice of technology route, compared with Panasonic in Ningde era, it also has advantages.
For example, in the production of electric cars by Tesla, there were no large-scale square and soft-pack batteries on the market. With only 18650 batteries in the year, Panasonic became a battery supplier for Tesla Motors, but the 18650 battery was not born for a power battery. According to the results of tests conducted by European authorities on 18650 batteries, square batteries, and soft pack batteries, square hard-shell batteries are suitable.
The square-shaped batteries used in the Ningde era are the most suitable for the moment, but this does not show that the Ningde era can be peace of mind. Whether the future technology road will develop into a soft pack battery is even more worth looking forward to.
“Whoever will become the next era in Ningde needs continuous improvement in terms of technology, quality level, price, and supply capacity. This is a core element of competition,†Wang Binggang said finally.
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