“Neither increase nor relax, and fine-tune in a timely and appropriate mannerâ€, this will become the policy orientation of the next macro-control.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference on economic operations in the first half of 2005. Cao Yushu, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the fundamentals of steady and rapid economic development in the second half of the year will not change, and this good momentum of economic development will continue. In the second half of the year, we will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic regulation and control policies, and fiscal and monetary policies will continue to maintain a steady trend with the same orientation.
New and old
"Some deep-seated contradictions and problems in economic development have not been effectively resolved, and some new situations and new problems have emerged in the economic operation." Cao Yushu said at the press conference yesterday.
"The 'new problem' and 'new situation' have four main aspects." Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the forecasting department of the National Information Center. The first is the price issue. Last year, price hikes exceeded 5%, but this year it has been falling all the way, and the industry has also been worried about deflation.
Secondly, after the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, the export situation in the second half of the year is still difficult to predict. "In theory, the exchange rate adjustment of 2% is measured, and the impact on the entire national economy (within one year) is about 0.5 percentage points, but the actual situation is not good."
Third, the growth rate of investment in the first half of the year has slowed down, but from the perspective of the trend, future investment will continue to accelerate. Therefore, for the future investment is "rebound or decline, but still not sure."
In addition, the issue of food prices is also confusing. "If this year's grain continues to harvest, food prices will definitely fall, and farmers' income will also become a problem."
But these are only one aspect of the problem. Some "old problems" that have plagued China's economic development since last year still exist. As Cao Yushu said: "As of now, the contradiction between coal, electricity, oil and gas supply and demand has eased, but the problem has not been fundamentally resolved; the over-expansion of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries has been effectively curbed, but the consequences of excessive capacity expansion continue. appear……"
Continue the "double stability award policy
To a certain extent, the complexity of the current "new and old" of the macro economy just confirms the current "deflation" and "inflation" disputes in the economics field.
For the entire policy trend, focusing on only one point will inevitably lead to deviations in the overall economic policy. A simple policy of austerity or expansion may lead to “a little difference, a thousand milesâ€, which makes macro-control deviate from the original orbit.
It is precisely in this context that “both may rebound and cannot rebound, both deflation and deflationâ€, Liu Wei, dean of the School of Economics of Peking University, put forward the idea of ​​“changing in order to changeâ€.
This view is more or less revealed in the NDRC's point of view yesterday.
"Overall, neither increase nor relax the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control. At the same time, according to the new situation and new problems arising from economic operation, we will take measures in a targeted manner and make fine adjustments at appropriate time." Cao Yushu expressed his position at yesterday's press conference.
According to the information conveyed by the National Development and Reform Commission, the next macro-control will be “as usualâ€, neither increasing nor relaxing. That is to maintain the continuity and stability of macro-control policies, continue to strengthen and improve the total amount of regulation and control, while also promoting the adjustment of economic structure and accelerating the transformation of growth mode.
Fine-tuning prices, land, credit funds
According to Li Luyang, director of the Economic Affairs Office of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, the “fine-tuning†measures are mainly reflected in prices, land and credit funds.
"Last year, everyone worried about the price is too high, there are some prices should be adjusted, there is no adjustment under that background; and now, everyone's fear of price reversed to worry about falling too fast, so now is a comparison Good time, you can take the opportunity to raise some prices, especially in the municipal sector, such as water prices, electricity prices, etc."
The second aspect of “fine tuning†is “how the land policy will continue to tighten and protect the cultivated land while taking care of the reasonable land size needed for economic developmentâ€. Li Luyang said that this round of macroeconomic regulation and control can achieve positive results, and the control of land gates has played a crucial role, but excessive tightening in some areas has restricted the reasonable need for economic growth. According to the report, the Ministry of Land and Resources is actively investigating and is expected to introduce new policies on the use of land.
Credit funds are also an indispensable aspect of “fine tuningâ€. “In the first half of the year, the fixed assets investment in the first half of the year was 3.359 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, and domestic loans only increased by 11.8%.†Li Luyang said that the survey found that many companies are very tight, especially in the SMEs and county economies. area. At the meeting of the central bank branch presidents held recently, the central bank has conveyed the policy intention of providing timely working capital loans for enterprises and increasing loan support for agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises. (Reporter Yang Yuxu rises)
Transformer Electric Energy Meter Co., Ltd. , http://www.nswatermeter.com