The traditional sharing economy uses one sentence to make it clear that the existing ownership of things is transformed into the right to use, forming a C2C network trading platform.
So Airbnb is a sharing economy, Uber is, and Didi is also.
But from this point of view, ofo and Mobike not. Mobike is a complete B2C rental economy. All cars are self-developed, manufactured and put into operation. Ato's cars are currently 90% self-operated and 10% are shared by C-side, but the so-called C-side sharing is also a user. The sharing of the original bicycle to the public, that is, the C-end completely lost ownership, and finally for the ofo is also self-employed.
Therefore, what people call the two companies to do is "shared bicycles", which is theoretically inaccurate. If this type of leasing economy is shared, then the earliest shared economy in China is probably the "hotel" or "Internet cafe."
ofo and Mobike course could have chosen to cut pure shared economic way, in fact ofo also start doing just that, but after trying to find such a large leveraging a traditional market, do not own vehicles is not feasible . So in this market, perhaps turning the shared economy into a leasing economy is indeed a more reasonable solution.
After all, the current visible trend is that all the sharing economy players are extending to self-employment, Airbnb began to build their own houses, Uber began to launch driverless cars, and Didi used its own drivers in the high-end car field. So maybe the ultimate in sharing the economy is self-employed? Or at least self-employment is an important part of the cash flow of these companies.
This is not even the sharing economy. All platform-based enterprises are moving towards self-employment. These platform-type players like Hungry, Meituan Takeaway, and Baidu Takeaway are all developing their own roads. because:
1) Internet companies have natural monopoly attributes
2) Internet companies themselves need to continue to pursue high growth
3) Internet companies are naturally destructive, can fight wars, and can enter new fields without seeking short-term benefits.
4) The current deteriorating market environment puts more pressure on Internet companies to make profits
The result: all Internet companies are expanding in the horizontal arena and extending in the vertical domain. The specific performance is "as long as you can replace the upstream, you must go to the end, as long as you can touch the C end to fight for it."
Therefore, for a giant company with money and money, based on the correctness of the long-term layout, the angle of strategic thinking has long changed. The question now is no longer "what can I do," but "what should be done." So you will see Internet companies doing finance, doing cars and so on. It doesn't matter if you don't work, as long as the things are meaningful, even if you buy a company, you have to do it.
Going back to ofo and Mobike, the reason why it takes so much space to discuss its business type is the leasing economy rather than the sharing economy is because it comes with a more important conclusion, that is, the difference between the core of their business model and The impact.
The core of the sharing economy is the network effect. It is necessary to build a reasonable and effective bilateral platform. For Airbnb, there must be landlords and tenants. For Uber, there must be drivers and passengers. The network effect relies on the design of the product, the promotion of the crowd, etc., and comes with the high growth and high retention of the virus. (Of course, as mentioned in the previous article, in fact, the network effect of Didi is relatively poor)
However, the core of the leasing economy is the scale effect, because this business model is no longer C2C, but becomes B2C. The supply end is completely solved by a company, especially the huge market like bicycle travel. Let the market start a little. small ripple need to put tens of thousands out of the amount of bicycle can, so this company in the field of the fight is the complete scale, and scale-free behind him, is the capital, cash flow and capital utilization efficiency.
So, for ofo and Mobike two terms, because the choice of the lease economic B2C model, want to be successful but the core competitiveness is the ability to tell stories and financing in the capital markets.
Of course, the same, ofo and Mobike should also thank each other, the competition brought more attention to the capital market, but also brought more money. If we had not only a bit faster, there would be no today by bit. The same is true for ofo and Mobike.
Convenience and low-end subversionLooking back, the changes in the travel market can be said to be very thorough, and it can be said that there are very few, especially after the monopoly fare increase.
Imagine that when there are no drops, most people do not take a taxi because they are not good to fight? There may be a little reason, but more should still be because of the price. Therefore, no matter how easy and convenient it is to make a taxi, it is not convenient for people who choose other modes of travel because of the price to choose a taxi.
Why do people repeatedly talk about the Internet to improve efficiency? Because the efficiency improvement per unit time brings about an increase in total value, the increase in total value can in turn reduce the cost per unit of time, thereby lowering the unit price and expanding the population base of the product. This sentence seems to be very circling. Let's take a look at the example of the taxi market:
For example, a driver, who originally ran for 10 hours a day, received 100 orders, an average of 30 yuan per order, which is 3,000 yuan per day. If you run for 10 hours because of the existence of the drop, you can pick up 150 orders, and each order is still 30 yuan, which means you can earn 4,500 pieces a day. At this time, if the drip comes in to participate in the pricing, I say to the driver, because of my existence, if you earn more money every day when your working hours and mileage are the same, then I have a requirement that you lower the customer price. One point, the same mileage before 30, now close to 25, the last 150, 25 per ticket, 3750 per day, you still earn more than the previous 3000, how? The driver will probably agree at this time.
This is to increase the efficiency of the driver to make money, so that the driver is willing to give benefits to the C-end users. The ultimate benefit to the whole market is that people who originally had a bottom line between 25 yuan and 30 yuan can now start to take a taxi, which means that the base of the taxi is expanded. If the market can continue to cycle in such a positive direction, the lower the price, the more new customers, the more new customers and the lower the price, this is the most perfect state (of course, the time type of personal supply must have a ceiling, which is also The disadvantage of workers who sell working hours). Therefore, C low-end price can be reduced more than is actually the value of visual expression and pieces, and all this is simply how many are able to increase efficiency and pieces for the driver side.
At present, it seems that the decline in the price of the C-end and the expansion of the taxi population are more dependent on subsidies, but now in the near monopoly, the pursuit of profitable listings, the elimination of subsidies, after the price increase, give all users a feeling, that is "Not cheaper than before."
If the effective configuration of resources can not reduce the cost of using the client at the end, how is the result of the configuration measured, and where does the revenue go? Either the Didi does not create enough value, or the value created is not as fast as inflation (or so-called consumption escalation), or it is the eagerness to take that part of the value away from the end user’s pocket. Into your own income statement.
In any case, the final result is that the user group that was originally coming in because of the price reduction will leave in the same posture because of the price recovery. They will still choose to take a taxi at a critical juncture and choose other modes of public transportation the rest of the time. Of course, coupled with the traffic congestion in the core city, the driver who does not recognize the road, etc., will accelerate the escape of this part of the customer base.
It is in this context that ofo and Mobike appeared.If you've read the book The Innovator's Dilemma, you'll find that ofo and Mobike are typical of Low-end DisrupTIon in the book. The low-end subversion says that a large number of users do not need products or services that are too advanced in the market. These users are over-serviced. If there is a cheaper and lower-end solution, then these users will be very happy. Leave the seemingly high-end product. And these users are just the most inferior and not able to make money for that high-end service provider, so high-end service providers are not and are not worth fighting for this part of users.
In the travel market, this high-end service provider is a drop, the service of Didi is very good, but in fact people do not need to have a special car or express delivery every time, many people just need convenient, fast and cheap to reach their destination. Then the emergence of ofo and Mobike just solved the problem. The two companies themselves, together with the city's convenient public travel system, can fully meet the daily travel needs of most people.
The most deadly point of low-end subversion is that subversive companies will continue to evolve their products and strive for more advanced customers from the bottom up, while high-end service companies will continue to passively strip the lowest-level customers, after repeated round trips. Then, in the end, this relatively high-end company will suddenly find itself into a company that is absolutely absolutely high-end, serving only a few people, and a company that has lost a lot of user base is not far behind.
36Kr today has an article called "Special car price increase is inevitable, the price war is over, the new round of service war begins", saying that after the price increase in the future, the people who want to fight are the service. This is a bad thing. As a mass product, if the ultimate core competitiveness becomes a service, then it will slowly move toward the old road of the high-end market. It is simply a self-restraint and it will be subverted.
What people pursue is always the convenience under certain economic benefits, not just convenience itself. Therefore, only after the price has dropped to a certain level, people's gaze will be put back to convenience.
The core of theo and Mobike development is that they have revolutionized the parking lot. This in turn explains why the two businesses can get so fast after the parking lot is removed, because the convenience is more than the Tipping point.
For this reason, the development idea of ​​ofo using low-end low-cost bicycles (reported to cost 200+) may be better than Mobike's high-end self-developed vehicles in the long run (it is said to cost 2000+). Imagine, no matter what company's bicycle, under the same conditions, I must choose the nearest one, and if the bicycles of the two companies are the same distance, then I must choose the better ride, not even more cool. . After all, this is a popular travel market.
Moreover, Mobike's car is cool to say: the car is not easy to damage, does not need to pump, can be self-charging, fixed seat anti-stealing and so on. But if you think about it carefully, these so-called cool points seem to be for Mobike's own operation and maintenance services, and they are all told to the capital side, not to the users. Users will not care about these things, the user cares only a little, the car is not easy to find, is it good to ride?
(As for the problem of car locks that many people criticize, for the fast-growing market and companies, thinking about problems with the limit method, only grasping the core crux, other things that can be changed with money and people, lengthen The time dimension is not a big deal.)
Order and regulation
Whether it is scale effect or convenience, it is inseparable from the effective allocation of resources. In the travel market, the supply-side resources are destined to be in a state of shortage for a long time, so it is extremely important to use market means to regulate resources.
One of the smartest tricks when Uber started out was the introduction of a feature called Surge Pricing, which is dynamic pricing. This feature I remember that it took a long time to add to the product.
Simply speaking, dynamic pricing is cheap at leisure, expensive when busy. When you are free, you have enough supply, and when you are busy, you are short of supply. Through the regulation of this function, on the one hand, users can feel that Uber is cheaper and can make drivers feel that they can make a lot of money when they are busy. On the other hand, they can stimulate more drivers to come and pick up when they are busy. Thereby increasing supply to meet user needs.
The same is true for the bicycle market.Ofo is currently confining itself to the campus market. It can be imagined that the future can be developed into separate and relatively closed scenes, and Mobike is a brain-opening to the entire city. The scene chosen by ofo is naturally better in terms of data, while Mobike is more powerful in terms of market influence.
But at the same time, ofo is equivalent to giving yourself a lot of restrictions, since the abolition of a layer of martial arts. Mobike is easy to be radical, and in the process it must cause a lot of waste of resources. Mobike needs to understand that the seemingly disorderly growth can also be obtained in an orderly manner. In other words, instead of putting tens of thousands of cars into the city, it is better to first fill one area and then put one down.
Therefore, in fact, the most ideal possibility is to artificially divide the city into different squares. For Ofo, it is equivalent to copying countless schools, summing up and expanding into a city, and for Mobike, it is to take the city. The definition is constantly shrinking, and then summing up and zooming in is also a kind of copy.
The biggest problem with this approach is the uncertainty of the user's own mobility, so I think the electronic fence technology, coupled with the dynamic pricing mechanism under big data, is the key to solving this problem, and it is likely that the two companies will develop in the future. A competitive barrier that has the most barriers.
Imagine, for example, a bicycle, riding to the north for free, and riding to the south to add several times the price, then whether to a certain extent, through the manipulation of price and location, let each user change Become a vehicle maintainer? Of course, the facts are certainly not that simple, but they must also be a very imaginative direction.
in conclusionTherefore, because of the scale effect requirements caused by the leasing economy, there is a strong demand for capital. The revelation of theo is that to better tell the story, do a good job of PR, and more quickly meet the challenges of Mobike, and even enter the city more quickly to fight, rather than stick to the position. The higher the risk, the higher the return. If you are doing business in economies of scale, you must do the scale first.
Therefore, because convenience is the most important requirement of users, Mobike should seriously consider the possibility of launching low-end vehicles after focusing on the brand for a period of time, whether it is from the unit economic efficiency or from the convenience of users. Say, it should be more reasonable. What's more, under the premise of the same total capital, the cheaper each bicycle is, the more it can be delivered, which in turn can cause scale effects.
Finally, for Didi, the bicycle market is undoubtedly a low-end subversion, but at the same time the driverless auto market is obviously a bigger and more worthy market (even I think it is all in, as a re-starting, come back again) The century-old opportunity), so for the bicycle market in the chaotic state, it may be a better choice to buy a family. Since the old investors who are already behind the ofo are standing in the queue, then the trick is to reverse the thinking and consider the possibility of entering the Mobike. If necessary, then take advantage of the merger. For the sake of the drop, it is already familiar.
Clothing, food, housing and transportation have always been the biggest opportunities. The revolution in the travel market is the largest thematic industry opportunity in the previous five years to ten years or more.
The first car was born in the world in 1886, and it has been more than 100 years now.
In 1969, Beijing passed the first subway line, and it has only been more than 50 years since now.
And we seem to have long been accustomed to the current appearance of the city, and lack of imagination of the future of the city.
Uber's first driverless car was already on the road in Pittsburgh, and driving unmanned was faster than all of us thought.
Looking at the dimensions of the decade, in two cycles, the evolution of the travel field will bring about radical changes in our lives.
Twenty years later, the city will become unrecognizable. I am excited and happy for being in the midst of change and being one of the recorders of change.
Let us wait and see.
According to: the author of this article Qu Kai, Haigui Ventures, Duke Graduate, former ConsulTIng Intern, former Baidu PM. The original text is contained in Chapter 42 (Public ID: MyFortyTwo).
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