Some analysts said that after the issuance of licenses, operators ’4G network construction will generate more than 500 billion yuan of investment. The replacement speed brought by the increase in network speed will generate hundreds of billions of terminal mobile phone markets. The investment in the mobile Internet application market is expected to drive trillions of investment in a few years.
"The country will issue 4G licenses on '5 · 17' World Telecommunication Day as soon as possible." The words of Xiang Ligang, a telecommunications expert and president of Flying Elephant, have been cited in many research reports recently. From the beginning of this year's National "Two Sessions", Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stated that "4G licenses can be issued within this year." The guessing game for the timing of 4G license issuance began.
As a member of the 4G industry chain, Yitong Century has ushered in a collective survey of a number of fund companies and securities companies in the near future. The reporter learned that in recent months, many investment managers and researchers have conducted research on more than a dozen companies in the relevant industrial chain. The topic of 4G is not new in the capital market, but its popularity has increased significantly in recent times.
"The country will issue 4G licenses on '5 · 17' World Telecommunication Day as soon as possible." The words of Xiang Ligang, a telecommunications expert and president of Flying Elephant, have been cited in many research reports recently. From the beginning of this year's National "Two Sessions", Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stated that "4G licenses can be issued this year." The guessing game for the timing of the issuance of 4G licenses began.
"I think '5 · 17' may issue 4G licenses, but it is not necessarily, it may be in the next few months, but it will not be too long." Xiang Ligang recently told the Securities Times reporter. As for the date of license issuance, there are many opinions in the industry, including May 17, August, and October. Xiang Ligang's confidence is not as good as before.
"China Mobile's 4G network test should be no problem, but the terminal market is not mature enough, and there may be more 4G mobile terminals in the third quarter." Liu Tong, director of Yitong Century, said the timing of license issuance may depend on the urgency of the country's domestic demand It depends. The company is a communication technology service provider of Guangdong Mobile and is participating in the construction of 4G networks.
Starting in the second half of last year, China Mobile built TD-LTE (the company's independently developed 4G system) test network in 15 cities. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Ningbo, and Hangzhou have achieved full coverage of the main urban area and experienced large-scale experience. The remaining cities have also completed Basic network coverage. The main base for China Mobile's 4G trials is in Guangdong, and the current network tests in Shenzhen and Guangzhou have reached 4G standards. Last year, Guangdong added about 6,000 TD-LTE base stations. The person in charge of Guangdong Mobile said that in 2013 Guangdong Mobile will invest 10 billion yuan to develop TD-LTE, and Guangdong's LTE base stations will reach 40,000.
LTE base station construction methods include new construction, 2G and 3G old station reconstruction, and old station upgrade. These modes are all included in the base station projects that Yitong Century participates in, and Yitong Century has not yet felt the 4G boom, "This year The volume of 3G bidding is larger. "Liu Yu said. However, Yitong Century is making more preparations for LTE base stations. This year, Guangdong's LTE base stations will be spread from the Guangzhou and Shenzhen cities to the whole province.
The issue of license is paying attention to the entire industry chain. A company involved in the construction of 4G said that China Mobile did not dare to call a commercial trial for building a 4G network in Guangdong. It is only called a trial network. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are actually commercial trials; this year the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has expressed support for 4G construction. After all, the country has not yet followed.
Xiang Ligang believes that it is appropriate to issue the license as early as possible, and cannot wait for the terminal to mature. After all, the license is not available immediately, and there must be a construction period. For manufacturers, if they do not issue a license, they will be more worried about investment.
In February of this year, China Mobile released 4G numbers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Existing 2G or 3G customers pre-stored 1,500 yuan in phone bills and handled 4G data card services to obtain 4G smartphone experience qualifications. In Shenzhen, where the network is best built, the maximum download speed of TD-LTE can reach 80Mbps, and it takes only a few minutes to download a 2G movie.
The relevant person in charge of ZTE told the Securities Times reporter that the overall development level of the domestic 4G industry lags behind that of developed countries. The main reason is that 4G licenses have not yet been issued. Only some operators have conducted small-scale tests and there is no commercial network. The person in charge believes that the time for large-scale commercial use depends on the time of issuance of 4G licenses. It is expected that domestic 4G will form large-scale commercial use within six months of the issuance of licenses.
People including operators and many companies in the industry chain believe that the issuance of 4G licenses will be in "World Telecommunication Day" as early as in the third quarter of this year. In the third quarter, Samsung will launch a mobile phone that supports China Mobile's TD-LTE standard. Apple may also launch a new generation of iPhone customized by China Mobile in the fourth quarter. This is also considered a side argument that the 4G license will be issued at the latest in the third quarter. "No matter sooner or later, the issuance of 4G licenses during the year should be a deterministic event with a high probability." Dai Chunrong, an analyst at CITIC Securities Investment Communications, believes.
Drive trillions of investments
Xiang Ligang analyzed that after the issuance of licenses, operators' 4G network construction will generate more than 500 billion yuan of investment. The replacement speed brought by the increase in network speed will generate hundreds of billions of terminal mobile phone markets, and the entire industry chain will increase. The investment in the mobile Internet application market is expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment within a few years.
China Mobile's 2012 annual report announced that it plans to build more than 200,000 4G base stations in 2013 (only 20,000 in 2012). TD-LTE investment is 41.7 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 10 times the size of last year. Due to large-scale 4G network construction in 2013, China Mobile's total capital expenditure will reach 190.2 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 50% year-on-year.
After the country issued 3G licenses in 2009, China Mobile maintained its position as the leader in the industry, but its share declined significantly and its competitiveness weakened. For this reason, it set its sights on 4G eagerly. "The demand of an operator is not enough to make the country determined to determine the timing of the issuance of 4G licenses. The licenses will largely depend on the economic strategy of the country to drive domestic demand." Liu Yu believes that the industry is moving backwards.
After the international financial crisis in 2008, China launched 4 trillion investment and stimulus policies for the real estate market, with policies such as "automotive going to the countryside" and "home appliances going to the countryside" to drive the development of many important industries of the national economy. Today, such stimulus policies are no longer possible. The overcapacity left by the previous round of stimulus policies in the steel, nonferrous metals, home appliances and other industries, as well as the real estate regulation and control difficulties, all exist in the current economy, and the country stimulates the development of the people ’s livelihood. There are not many platforms, and 4G is one of the selection targets.
Researchers are paying attention to the strategic significance behind industrial policy. "The development of the communication industry and the construction of 4G networks in the next 2 to 3 years cannot be viewed solely from the perspective of operators' own needs." Yang Haofan, a researcher at Guotai Junan Securities, said that the economic transformation will promote the advance investment of the 4G industry, and the communication industry will become a must-play card for the government to stimulate economic growth .
From the conservative attitude towards 4G investment in early 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly supported it in early 2013; the operators of China Unicom and China Telecom, which had previously clearly opposed the advance investment of 4G, have changed their attitudes this year. Analysts judged that the will of the government played a big role in this.
Yang Haofan believes that the new government emphasizes economic transformation and upgrading. The new generation of information networks mainly represented by 4G is the basic resource. The investment in the communications industry has a strong spillover effect and green effect; the network can serve various industries and save transaction costs. , Improve transaction efficiency; and have no negative impact on the consumer price index and other livelihood indicators. Even if the network invests in advance, consumer demand will quickly make up for the additional supply. Under such circumstances, 4G network investment is expected to become the “vanguard†that leads China ’s economic transformation. The government is willing to promote 4G network advance investment. This is manifested by China Unicom and China Telecom ’s additional 4G investment of 15 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Increased from the original 8.4% to 19.2%.
China Telecom Chairman Wang Xiaochu also publicly stated that the progress of 4G construction will not be slower than that of China Mobile. Dai Chunrong believes that although China Telecom does not have a 4G investment plan in its capital expenditures in 2013, if the issuance of 4G licenses is advanced, telecommunications will definitely make corresponding investments and become new investments in the market.
Xiang Ligang analyzed that after the issuance of licenses, operators' 4G network construction will generate more than 500 billion yuan of investment. The replacement speed brought by the increase in network speed will generate hundreds of billions of terminal mobile phone markets. The investment in the mobile Internet application market is expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment within a few years.
Industry sector is hot
The A-share market focuses on 4G, which stems from the experience of 3G. The 3G license was issued on January 7, 2009, and the communications equipment industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 42 percentage points in 2009.
Dai Chunrong intensively investigated the 4G industry chain, and believed that once the 4G license is issued, it will be a huge benefit to the communications industry. The industry boom is expected to be significantly improved. In the first half of the year, 4G concepts and theme opportunities are predominant.
Dai Chunrong said that 4G network construction will drive the boom of the entire industry chain. Network planning, radio frequency devices, host stations, network optimization operation and maintenance engineering, transmission equipment, and small base station related companies will all benefit from the construction period, and wait for the network to mature , Mobile terminals, content providers and operators will also get development opportunities. Due to the constraints of the objective environment, compared with the large-scale construction of 3G networks by three operators at the same time in 2009, the construction rhythm of the 4G network may be slightly slower than that of 3G, and it shows a gradual and demand-driven feature. 4G related industries will be regarded as 2013 Annual structural hotspots have become the main line of investment in the communications industry.
China Mobile has frequently held 4G bidding. Recently, it has started bidding for 4G terminals, purchasing 160,000 data-type TD-LTE terminals and about 10,000 TD-LTE mobile phones. A total of seven products from Huawei, ZTE, Samsung and Coolpad were shortlisted.
Then there is the bidding of the main equipment supplier. Zhang Liangyong, a researcher at China Merchants Securities, said that due to internal disputes over the path of network construction, China Mobile ’s 4G equipment bidding may be delayed until June. The bidding must not only consider technical factors, but also industrial development factors and balance the interests of all parties. None of these options affects 4G investment expectations. China Mobile ’s goal of building 200,000 LTE base stations this year has not changed.
4G continued various news to maintain the A-share-related sectors and individual stocks, while also accumulating a large increase. Since the December low last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 14%, while the stock prices of some stocks in the 4G industry chain have doubled.
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