Reflections and Suggestions on Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry

With the further increase in the use of fossil energy and the rapid depletion of fossil energy, the development of renewable energy has become inevitable. Here, I propose the following immature suggestions on the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry in the next 10 years:

The first is about the proportion of solar power generation in the future power generation structure. It is estimated that by 2020, the national full-caliber power generation will reach 7.2 trillion kWh. If the national installed capacity of 950 million kilowatts of thermal power, 250 million kilowatts of hydropower, 80 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and 150 million kilowatts of wind power are considered, this means that in the future there will be more than 30 million kilowatts of new thermal power installed each year, so the coal supply and environmental sustainability will be With great challenges, hydropower may also be constrained by resources and the environment. Nuclear power is also bound to be constrained by the supply of nuclear fuel. Even wind power is bound to be limited by the distribution of resources and the quantity of high-quality resources, even if these difficulties can be overcome. It is also difficult to meet the electricity demand.

According to conventional calculations, thermal power generation capacity is about 5 trillion kWh, nuclear power is about 0.5 trillion kWh, hydropower is about 0.75 trillion kWh, and wind power is about 0.3 trillion kWh. The above totaled 6.55 trillion kWh, and there is a 0.65 trillion kWh gap from the 7.2 trillion kWh electricity demand. I believe that the 0.65 trillion kilowatt-hour electricity gap can be solved by generating electricity from solar photovoltaic power generation and other energy sources and saving electricity. Assuming that each of the above three approaches accounts for one-third of the total, solar photovoltaic power generation is required to contribute about 0.22 trillion kwh of electricity, and the corresponding installed capacity should be more than 150 million kilowatts. Therefore, it is recommended that at least 150 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power generation be installed in China in the next 10 years.

The second is about solar photovoltaic power generation costs and electricity prices. At present, according to the practice of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, the main factor affecting the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation is that the cost of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power stations is high, and there is a large gap between the actual power and the theoretical power (the actual utilization hours are less than the theoretical utilization hours 15% to 20% lower, mainly due to air pollution. As a result, the full cost of electricity generated by solar power at the current cost level is around 1.2 yuan, which is a large gap between the thermal power grid benchmark price, which is approximately 3 to 4 times of the current thermal power grid benchmark price, and is the wind power on-grid price. About 2 times.

However, we should see that the time available for photovoltaic power generation is at the peak of power load, so its actual value should be higher than the benchmark price of thermal power. On the other hand, if we give policy support and guidance, and organize technical research on photovoltaic power generation and grid-connected equipment including polysilicon, the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants will decline as quickly as possible. By 2020, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation will be lower than the national total. The average on-grid electricity price of thermal power generation may still be lower than the national average on-grid tariff in the future. Therefore, I suggest that the country should adopt price levers and policy measures to encourage the rapid and orderly construction of solar photovoltaic grid-connected power stations.