Netease Technology News, April 2 news, at the IT leaders summit held in Shenzhen today, the founder of Innovation Factory Kai-fu Lee received an exclusive interview from Netease Technology. Li Kaifu believes that at present, China has become a major producer of the world, but it is still not strong enough in terms of technology. However, there are many excellent Chinese and even foreigners who recognize China very much. Now it is a good opportunity to attract them back. .
At the same time, he also stated that artificial intelligence is definitely the biggest revolution in human beings. After reviewing artificial intelligence ten years later, it will discover that its impact on the world should exceed all technologies, including the industrial revolution, including electricity, including the Internet, and including mobile. The sum of the Internet adds up.
The following content was compiled in real time according to the live interview of Kaiyi Li from Netease Technology:
Netease Technology: Recently, you will hold a man-machine battle in the Texas Hold'em community. What is the original intention?
Kai-Fu Lee: Texas Hold'em is a very interesting game that has recently emerged. There are a lot of people playing in China and the United States. It is a psychological warfare. It is not the same as Go. Go depends on learning. Texas Hold'em is not easy, but it is a card. The number is relatively small. There are only 52 cards. The big difference between it and Go is that you don’t know what the opponent’s hand is, so the other party can cheat. In reverse, he can let you think of what it is and the mental tactics continue to iterate. Become a pure psychological war.
The reason why this is the Texas Hold'em man-machine war is to tell everyone that in this psychological war, the machine can also defeat humans. In the past, if AlphaGo represented the victory of a purely intelligent machine, then Texas Hold'em will see the EQ, the field, the probability uncertainty, and the non-integrity game (machine).
Netease Technology: Which team do you prefer for machines and people?
Kai-fu Lee: That is definitely a big machine. I would think that 99.9% of it. The Chinese Dragons team gives themselves a 10% chance. They are so optimistic is a good thing, but it doesn't play.
Netease Technology: In fact, these machine players have surpassed human players in some areas. What do you think this means?
Kai-fu Lee: This means that the step-by-step machine will do more things. Actually, artificial intelligence is a very simple process. When you have a large amount of data and have very good labels, and when you are in a single field, it can rely on data learning to surpass human judgment, prediction, and classification, so it is in various fields. More and more people will transcend.
Netease Technology: What about other commercial uses?
Kai-fu Lee: Many uses in business, in fact, there are at least a dozen AI applications in mobile phones today, such as Taobao recommended products is AI; Didi is also AI; Today's headlines, quick hand sort is AI. Mito's hand-painting function is also AI, otherwise how does it know how big your eyes are? Must be based on the user's expectations and past data. These are AIs that use future data to make future projections, so they are already used.
There are also a group of people who have non-internet big data and use it with AI. There are also many of them. For example, we invest in “use Qianbaoâ€. It will use AI to decide whether or not to loan you this year. You can download it. Qian Bao, for example, needs 1000 pieces, and then it will quickly upload some data from you. Within 8 seconds, the money will be called to you. People can't do it. What AI will see, it will look at your uploaded data, see your ID card, see your behavior on the Internet, see if you are a bad guy, see if you often play games, often watch live or often see In the game, these will make him form a judgment. In the end, good or bad, we don’t care. It’s a big black box. According to which people paid back in the past, who’s cheated on it, you guessed it and lent it back to you. Lay accounts will not lend you. Within 2 years, 40 billion loans will be made, which is almost a bank. Therefore, the outbreak of artificial intelligence is particularly severe and it is always happening.
We also invested Face++. Its cameras help public security officials in 20 cities to catch 20 wanted criminals. For example, the public security can catch 5 a day and it can grab 100. Face++ can identify 500,000 faces. This is not to replace humans at all. It is human beings who are not playing and are not playing.
Netease Technology: In this era, it brings us a lot of convenience, artificial intelligence era really come, do you think humans will play what role?
Kai-fu Lee: People definitely need to make a big change. This is why I was recently writing books and artificial intelligence science books. Let everyone know how this era is going to happen. I think that every young person should be the first to do his job. Do not do anything shallow. For example, you interviewed me today. This is artificial intelligence. Replaced, not immediately, within a few years, so you have to go deeper. How to turn deeper? Writing deeper articles, making deeper analysis, and asking more difficult questions, today’s questions are fine, but it’s a little more difficult.
How does a tech person do it? Programming cannot be simply programmed. There is no point in copying data. It is very difficult to write something that people cannot read or understand. Doctors don't want to watch movies. They have to be very deep, such as cancer and research on Parkinson. So I advise everyone to do something deep, not to do superficial things, and to be an expert in your field for 10,000 hours. Will not be replaced. How to do it? Pick your favorite things, because boring things do not learn deeply and do not go in. It takes time, but we must be able to learn it.
Third, do not worry, if you are not a science human, you can do art, creativity, oil painting, sculpture, design stage, designer, architecture, production, humor, computer is not humorous, so the space is still very large .
In terms of entertainment, there are many things that can be pursued in terms of culture, literature, and entertainment. In the past, we didn’t really recognize this aspect because earning money earned less, but not later, people who were replaced later earn less. So this part is fine.
Next is the service industry. I think the service industry cannot be replaced by machines, because we still want people to be in touch with each other. If a robot gives you a tour guide, you feel wrong. A robot does not seem to massage. The robot is at an advanced level. It does not seem right for restaurants to serve you. If you arrive at the hotel, you may still want people to face you. I think that people will continue to do these services. Because people have feelings and temperatures, so I think this is okay.
What to do last? The last thing is to do charity because we have lived so hard for two hundred years. Everyone is trying to get enough food, have a room and a car for money, and fight for everything, forgetting the feelings and love between people. It is the most valuable and noblest thing for human beings. Our release of love can certainly give family more time, but we can also help disadvantaged groups to go to nursing homes, orphanages, and social workers everywhere. I think these things happen in an orderly and systematic way. Since the machine came out, 50% of the people's work has been replaced, the machine will earn a lot of money. The government will collect taxes and collect taxes. What should I do? To get 50% of the laid-off workers, you can send 5,000 pieces to one person and let them go away.
This kind of disaster came, because people are pursuing. People want opportunities for self-realization. Everyone said at the time that I worked hard as a gardener and was replaced by a machine. I worked hard as an accountant and was replaced by a machine. If people have no value, the suicide rate will increase immediately.
Therefore, our proposal is that 5000 yuan will be distributed to everyone, but you will be required to volunteer for 20 hours (volunteer), charity, so I feel warmer, and the old man is accompanied, orphaned. We were accompanied, and they had one-on-one help. We had a tour guide with us. When we visited the Forbidden City, we could meet new people one by one. The connection between people was getting closer instead of getting further and further away. .
Moreover, these people will be self-fulfilled after volunteering. Because they will be happy when they do it, they feel that they have helped people, they feel that they have value to society, and society is also stable.
NetEase Science and Technology: So, Kai Fu’s teacher means that we can use artificial intelligence to help us do a lot of technical things, and then we go for charity, creative or cultural work. For many people today, artificial intelligence can make us panic. Do you think humans can get along with artificial intelligence?
Kai-fu Lee: It seems to be right now, because the panic comes from a kind of sci-fi film instilling the wrong knowledge of us. The science fiction movie “Mechanoji†and “HER†are each a horrible ending and the machine always has to Do evil, kill people, bully us. But the AI ​​we made today is just like our Microsoft WORD. Like Android, it is our tool. We let it play chess, let it buy stocks, and buy stocks. There is no emotion and no desire. These concerns are The author of science fiction is too imaginative.
Of course, you said whether or not there might be a particularly intelligent AI in 50 years, and this possibility is not ruled out, but from the current trajectory, AI is a tool. We first use this tool well. There are too many opportunities and challenges for human beings. There is no need to think about this kind of inevitability.
Netease Technology: We also had netizens before. What if AI was controlled by bad guys?
Kai-fu Lee: This is really a problem. Like the microfinance I just talked about, a company can do exactly the same thing, and then he goes to do bad things and to make money. Yesterday I ate dinner with an entrepreneur. He said I received a bond for a small loan, but I did not have a loan. This is a liar. So this is possible.
I personally think that it will reduce the ease of doing evil so that people with big data can do all sorts of bad things. If I have all the Chinese people’s mobile numbers, I’ll call junk all day and hit 100. A phone can always sell a product and people are bothered to die. If I know all the Chinese social networks, I will know where my parents are, call a fraudulent phone, say where your child is lost, and pay me. This is a very serious problem.
All technologies are hydropower and can also be overturned. We need to find countermeasures to punish such behaviors. Punishment may be stronger than before the artificial intelligence era.
NetEase science and technology: Just said a lot of artificial intelligence problems, we just mentioned the Texas Hold'em man-machine war. We know that you like Texas Hold'em. Can you please talk about the similarities between Texas Hold'em and venture capital?
Kai-fu Lee: Because I am a Polytechnic male, the entry of Texas Hold'em is a statistical game. You have to calculate how many cards you have. How likely are you and how much is yours. This is an entry-level, so meritorious service is appropriate. Going further down is psychological. To guess what the other person is, he guesses what you are. So it's a combination of the two. Each time they watch their own progress, so it's fun. I didn't play well.
It's similar to investing in the fact that the two cards you have just issued are angel investments. There are seven cards in total. You can only see two. You have to bet these two, and our investment is like that. Also watch as the cards open, you decide whether or not to raise, there are others' opinions, just like you cast A round, B round. In the end, it was listed and it was delisted if it was not achieved. This process is still very interesting.
It teaches some of your thinking is also very meaningful, because people do not always understand the cost of sunk, we have already cast 300, the following card is not good, I think that has added 300 for 300, in fact, this thinking is wrong , because the investment is a sunk cost of 300, like a startup company you invested in a bad development, he said, "Mr. Li, you vote for me 3 million, or else your first 3 million have been lost." Actually, this is not the case. If you are already in the game, why would you use more money to chase a failing company? The sunk cost is to let you ignore such investment, or such a card. So probably this is the similarity. So to make yourself stronger, investors or entrepreneurs need to become more powerful.
NetEase science and technology: We look at the agenda, you will participate in the driverless conference, do you think when the era of drone will come?
Kai-fu Lee: Today, there have been some automatic driving, and many high-end cars will automatically stop, and some cars have been able to automatically open on the highway, China is relatively small, the United States already has, so it is gradually coming in. I think that the first stage of driverless driving is assistive. It helps you not to make mistakes, to see that you are asleep, to see if you are out of the road, to quickly remind you to correct or even correct you, and secondly to some of its functions, such as Parking and highways can help you deal with this situation, because the two are better dealt with.
In the city, many people know that especially China is particularly difficult to open and everyone does not follow the rules, so I think there is still a long way to go. Some people say that it will not be the machine to open with people? I don’t expect much from this. Google has done an experiment. It sent an almost drone-free car to the hands of an individual and allowed him to drive it together. But everyone would find that the car was in the back seat and he had to drink coffee. , and also with a girlfriend to affectionate. This tells us that when the car opens automatically, you treat it as a god, so unfortunately, Tesla made a self-driving car, but when you really climbed to the back, it was killed. .
So, if you really need to be safe enough to be unmanned, it's really a car and people don't do anything. This is a technical matter, such as ten years later. But before we can use it for scenic vehicles, cleaning cars, golf courses, these are relatively safe, the first step we do is to do low speed, a low-speed clean car hits the dead, because the entire artificial intelligence, including Unmanned, all need to continuously accumulate data, make you smarter on the basis of more data. At first, collect some data from garbage trucks, cleaning vehicles and scenic vehicles to slowly scroll, and then go on the road. More secure, so this is a gradual process.
A very important factor is the government’s policy. Which government is willing to let the driverless vehicle get on the road earlier will bring a big boost to the country’s scientific and technological progress. In this respect, I think the United States is entangled. The United States The issues in question are particularly discussed. They are worried that if the machine dies, isn't the machine killing people? There are two people on the front, one on each side. Should I intentionally turn to this person? Deliberately doing what a driver should not do, driving the car to the field to avoid the two people, but he killed another person. Shouldn't that be?
In fact, my opinion, people do not face these problems? How do people choose? People will also have intuitive responses, so I personally think that we only need to let the machines do the average life better than people, even if it's 5% better, I think we should hit the road. Of course, we will have some people killed because of this, but there are also many people who do not lose their lives. I think people's lives are sacred, but if people are dying on the whole, it is always a good thing. Therefore, because of this, I hope that the government will not Too tangled in this matter, when the (machine) is better than when people open, it does not have to wait three times, five times, ten times.
A very realistic economic problem is, what country is willing to let unmanned start to start, it will collect a large amount of data, its technology will lead the world, and finally when those conservative countries accept it, it can only import those who are willing to move forward. Country. Of course, it is still responsible for not being able to hit the road when the machine is lower than people's skill, but it is necessary to go in this direction. From this perspective, a strong and courageous government can make this decision.
The U.S. government, after Trump came to power, has overturned many proposals and has not had strong trust in him. There are many associations in the United States, such as the Truck Drivers Association, afraid to be replaced. They may go and tell him not to replace us. In this case, it is very difficult for them to make bold decisions. This is the opportunity for China. If we find a pilot city to quickly launch a driverless vehicle, it may happen within ten years, otherwise we will talk about legal and moral issues. It was really a pity to come and talk about it for two or three decades.
Try it first. And what drone brings is definitely not one more function that you buy a car, must be driverless + electric vehicle + sharing economy, we will not buy a car afterwards, do you think how much will your money come? Your money to buy a car is your second largest expense, ah, this money does not have to spend, every day is a very cheap drop, the car becomes smaller, save money and fuel, everyone does not buy a car, your The car is parked 96% of the time. It is a waste of social resources. What do you occupy in the parking space? That position can live in people, the car does not open, what benefits does it have? No. So people don’t buy cars. Everyone uses the car to get on call and the number of vehicles is reduced because there’s no need to stop it. When you need to get on the train again, there will not be a lot of empty cars turning around on the road. The traffic is not crowded. The air is not polluted, the parking lot can be re-arranged for use, the city plan can be redone, and finally the traffic light can be eliminated because the car knows not to bump into it.
As you can imagine, this is really subversive. This thing has at least a 10% to 15% change in the human economy. The entire transportation has changed. What you want, a small car to your home, Jingdong, Tian Cats no longer need to wait for express delivery, express companies have become unmanned, drone companies, so the influence is particularly large, which government has the courage to quickly make this experimental area, I think this country's technology, economy, The promotion of environmental protection will be particularly powerful.
Netease Technology: In terms of driverlessness, we know that you have been paying attention. What are the current actions?
Kai-fu Lee: We voted for two unmanned companies. The first one was called Z-tech. It was a cow. Intel’s boss came out to do it. Therefore, driverless driving is not something that can be done after 90s. It must be managed by a very experienced manager. , there are computer vision, artificial intelligence, deep learning, there are hardware, it will accelerate its chip, there are people from Google, there are professors, 70 to 80 people in Fangshan, now the car has opened Shang Shangjie, in the park, this car is a scenic car, there is no steering wheel there is no brake, this is the future. The other is called "acceleration". It was created by small technological geniuses. What they do is a high-precision map. Maps do a good job of navigating the car. Today's maps are not precise enough to be precise to one centimeter. This precise map can be Help us increase great safety. (Zion Finishing)
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