There is a lot of talk in the industry about how LTE will evolve over the long term, after all, the first version of the 5G specification (NSA) relies on LTE. But Mike Murphy, Nokia's North American CEO, said that although LTE does exist for some time, it has limited support for operators' carrying capacity. He calls it "LTE is coming to an end."
In his view, the most important decision that operators need to make in 2018 is which direction they should develop in the next two to three years.
Considering the use of mobile data and the emergence of 4K video, AR/VR, and more user unsubscribe, it is difficult to say that the growth rate will continue and may increase.
The main factor that enables LTE to carry more traffic is the massive multi-input and multi-output (Massive MIMO) that operators will launch this year.
The benefit of Massive MIMO is that it can significantly increase capacity, in the range of 2 to 3 times. The downside is that it is technically and physically limited, he said, the antennas will become bigger and less practical, and at some point the operator's return will be reduced.
"There is a limit to how far LTE can go." Murphy told the media, "We can actually calculate LTE exhaustion quite accurately." This involves focusing on existing LTE networks, advancing its development as much as possible, and computing the network will How much traffic is carried. Then the question becomes - is this enough to support the growth rate? Once the limit is reached, the number of options will decrease.
Opponents will say that you can introduce more small base stations or more spectrum, but small base stations are expensive, and site selection may take a long time to get approved, he said, and getting more spectrum is not taken for granted.
More importantly, 5G is approaching and Massive MIMO has arrived. "It's time to do this calculation," he said. If you think LTE can take you around 2025, then it is wrong. "We will not reach that far," it is time to turn to 5G.
Of course, US carriers are heading towards their chosen 5G direction, and he said the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is doing a good job of releasing high spectrum. Of course, the penetration of millimeter waves is not good, but there are some solutions. For example, millimeter wave technology can be used to reach buildings, and then Wi-Fi can be used inside buildings.
But for any frequency band - high or low frequency, there are advantages and disadvantages, "you all need it," he said.
The IF can almost be called a "sweet spot" in his mouth. The first spread is not terrible, and it is quite large, and can do a lot of work for peak rate and capacity.
"We may see 1.2Gbits per second today," he said, but it has become difficult to go beyond this. In fact, more spectrum is needed to reach 3, 4 or 5 Gbps, and the IF is the ideal to support this. select.
One of the major promises of 5G is the low latency it will bring and the applications it will enable, and it's unclear what use cases will be generated. But even if operators switch their wireless access to 5G, they won't get the required delay. To do this, they must actually make physical changes to the network architecture.
An easy way to reduce latency is to bring content closer to the end user. He said, of course, the technology and the agreement are helpful, but the final conclusion is that you have to get the two closer together, which means more distribution networks. Typically, large operators in the United States and Canada have eight or ten data centers, and now they must consider creating hundreds of small data centers or edge clouds to achieve the low latency required to automate, such as autonomous driving.
What is the edge? He said that there is no perfect answer, because each operator will define it differently, but in general, this means moving things closer to the end, then the question is how close.
"It depends on the use case you want to achieve." He said, for example, ultra-low latency may be used in the factory, so the edge is the factory; for autonomous driving, the edge may be the highway.
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